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太田 創 の「英語で読み解くクールな世界金融経済」
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実は大まじめ「アップルになる」発言 08月29日
今日の一文です。
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日本郵船のコンテナ船約100隻のうち40隻には、船の速度や姿勢、エンジンの出力状況などを収集するセンサーが付いている。商船三井も3割の船にセンサーを乗せる。川崎汽船を含め3社のデータが統合されると、膨大なものになる。
集まったデータは燃費向上や航行時間の短縮に役立つが、もちろんそれだけがデータ蓄積の目的ではない。
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NYK Lines' 40 out of about 100 container ships are equipped with sensors that record their speed, balance and output conditions of the engines while sailing. One third of Mitsui OSK Lines' ships also have similar sensors for correcting those records. Adding that data from Kawasaki Lines, the data base of these top three Japanese companies can accumulate an enormous amount of data in order to save fuel and shorten shipping time.
But, the real purpose of mining the data is still hidden under the table.
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NYK Lines wants to be "Apple" of the container ship industry.
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トヨタ、車用鋼材値下げ 08月24日
今日の一文です。
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トヨタ自動車が系列部品メーカーに支給する自動車用鋼材の2017年度下期（10月〜18年3月）の価格が上期（4〜9月）に比べて下落する見通しになった。引き下げは1年半ぶり。
下げ幅は1トン当たり5千円前後とみられ、近く部品メーカーに通知する。鉄鋼主原料の原料炭価格などが下落したことを反映する。
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It is the first time in a year and half that Toyota Motor Corp. has decided to lower the wholesale price of steel products for cars available during the second half of the fiscal year which will end in March 2018, compared to the previous half year.
Toyota will announce soon to their parts manufacturers that it will lower the cost by 5,000 yen per ton, reflecting the decreasing prices of the iron ore and carbon materials.
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Is it another deflation?
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なぜ日本では米国リート・ファンドが売れるのか？ 08月14日
今日の一文です。
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海外リートに人気があるのは、日本の投資家が毎月分配型の投信を好むという理由もありますが、その前段階として配当利回りが高いことがあげられるでしょう。リートは、大胆に言えば、不動産賃貸会社の高配当株と例えることができます。
そして、北米のリートの利回りはドルベースで大体3％台半ばの水準です。日本では預金金利がほぼゼロに近いので、少しでも利回りを求める投資家には魅力的に見える投信です。
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Why US REIT funds are so popular in Japan?
1. Japanese investors prefer income-oriented products like US REIT and High Yield products, especially monthly income products.
(1) The largest mutual fund in Japan, except ETFs, is Fidelity Japan’s US REIT FUND B(unhedged) whose AUM is about USD12 billion.
The second largest is Asset Management One’s US REIT FUND, nicknamed “Zeus” (the god of the sky and ruler of the Olympian gods in Greek legend). AUM is about USD 10 billion.
The total AUM of all international REIT mutual funds including US and other regions in Japan is around USD 70 billion, which accounts for approx. 12% of the total market size of the mutual funds industry in Japan, which is about USD 570 billion
All those US REIT funds are monthly-dividend type. Typically, those funds pay the higher monthly dividend than the actual yields of the funds. In fact, their average annual payout ratio stands at around 20%.
As you know, the yields of the REITs index are only around 4%, though the US REIT funds in Japan can even pay 20% per annum.
•FTSE NAREIT All REITs: 4.12%
•FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs: 3.81%
•S&P 500: 1.99%
Reflecting on these situations, the current unit prices and monthly dividend of the top 3 REIT funds in Japan are as follows: The unit price on inception is basically 10,000 yen.
Fidelity US REIT Fund B (unhedged) 4113 Yen / 70 Yen
Asset Management One’s US REIT FUND, nicknamed “Zeus” 2938
Yen / 50 Yen
La Salle Global REIT fund 2512 Yen / 40 Yen
Because of the continued payment of high dividends for years, their NAVs have been well below 10,000 yen, even 5,000 yen.
This means that these funds have been paying a much higher dividend than their original yields they can only earn from the REITs they invest in.
If the payout ratio is 20% and the yields is 4% per annum, the difference of 16% should be paid out from the funds’ principal. That is why the NAVs are well below 10,000 yen, even 5,000 yen.
If you keep on paying out 16% of the total assets for ten years, the AUM will become one fifth of the principal.
Before the Lehman debacle, the US REIT funds (also USHY as well) in Japan were regarded as pure satellite products since the volatility is higher and dividends were low.
But after 2008, things have changed dramatically and those funds got popular for some reason.
2. Why do US REIT funds pay out such a high dividend?
(1) Based on Japanese accounting rules for mutual funds, funds can pay out (a) pure income, (b) capital gain including currency gain (c) reserve for distribution (4) revenue adjustment (dividend levy) as the dividend should be paid equally to each unitholder.
Example:
Suppose there is an investor, Mr. A, who buys a fund at 10,000 yen and ten days later the unit price of the fund went up to 11,000 yen
Then, the second investor, Mr., B, wants to buy this fund at 11,000 yen. This day is the settlement day and the funds should pay a dividend.
The unit price went up from 10,000 yen to 11,000 yen so the funds can pay up to 1,000 yen as a dividend per unit. Mr. A has the right to receive 1,000-yen dividend against his principal 10,000. While, Mr. B, who joined the fund at 11,000, seems to have no right to receive the dividend as he has neither income gain nor capital gain on that day at 11,000 yen he subscribed.
Though, Japanese mutual fund accounting rules also allows Mr. B to pay a 1,000-yen dividend out of 11,000, at which the unit price he bought on that day.
This mechanism (4) above is called “revenue adjustment” (dilution levy)
If there is no such an allowance, Mr. A can only receive 500 yen (1,000 /2 units) as well as Mr. B receives for his unit. This is called a dilution of the dividend
After this calculation, Mr., A receives 1,000 yen and his principal will be adjusted from 11,000 to 10,000 yen. While, Mr. B’s principal on taxation will be lowered from 11,000 to 10,000 as well even if he/she subscribes to the fund at 11,000, due to receipt of the dividend 1,000 yen.
After the Lehman debacle, most US and Global REIT funds (of course USHY) made a V-shape recovery in price and investors found that those funds paid relatively higher monthly dividends than the other asset classes. Thus, the subscriptions with dilution levies to the funds dramatically accumulated and now some of those funds can technically pay more dividends than their current unit price.
This is an explanation of the hidden background of the popularity of the US REIT funds in Japan.
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Sorry for this bulky explanation...
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たまる円高マグマ 08月08日
今日の一文です。
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つまり足元は「円安・ドル安」。ソニーフィナンシャルホールディングスの尾河真樹氏は「綱引き相場」と表現する。
ドルと円の相場チャートを眺めるとおよそ2カ月周期で同じ軌道をたどり、元の水準に戻っている。
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Ms. Maki Ogawa of Sony Financial Holdings points out that the current US Dollar/Japanese Yen currency market is "cheaper Dollar and cheaper Yen", which she describes as a "tug of war" market.
Looking at the currency chart, the Dollar and Yen have been moving on the same path every two months and getting back to the same level.
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Low volatility, high correlation ?
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止まらぬ脱ガソリン車 08月03日
今日の一文です。
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英仏政府がそろって7月、2040年までにガソリンなどで走る内燃機関の車を販売禁止する方針を打ち出した。
石油需要のうち輸送用燃料は最も比率が高く、自国の脱石油の動きは痛手だ。欧州メジャーは車の電動化の流れをどうみているのだろうか。
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In July, the British and French governments decided together to ban selling automobiles with oil-powered engines after 2040.
Out of all, demands of petroleum for transportation fuels are the highest in the world so the major European oil producers should not be happy with this decision. People are wondering how these players are responding to the trend of electronic motorization.
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Until full-electronic cars replace oil-powered cars completely, I continue driving my old one, even in 30 years.
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